Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, reflecting their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless youth integration with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, and top seeding in the December group draw that shields them from early clashes with Argentina or France. England and France trail closely at 13% and 11%, bolstered by squad depth featuring Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé, while defending champions Argentina hold firm despite Lionel Messi's advancing age. The tight race persists amid UEFA and CONMEBOL dominance— all top contenders qualified months ago—with March 26 playoff semis (Sweden 3-1 Ukraine, Poland 2-1 Albania) confirming elite stability, expanded 48-team format enabling upsets, and neutral North American venues leveling home advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,006,659 Vol.
$416,006,659 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,006,659 Vol.
$416,006,659 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16% implied probability, reflecting their Euro 2024 triumph, seamless youth integration with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, and top seeding in the December group draw that shields them from early clashes with Argentina or France. England and France trail closely at 13% and 11%, bolstered by squad depth featuring Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé, while defending champions Argentina hold firm despite Lionel Messi's advancing age. The tight race persists amid UEFA and CONMEBOL dominance— all top contenders qualified months ago—with March 26 playoff semis (Sweden 3-1 Ukraine, Poland 2-1 Albania) confirming elite stability, expanded 48-team format enabling upsets, and neutral North American venues leveling home advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions