Spain's trader consensus lead at 15.8% implied probability stems from their gritty UEFA playoff qualification over Netherlands on penalties March 23—advancing after 2-2 and 3-3 draws—and a commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia March 27, highlighted by Mikel Oyarzabal's brace and Rodri's injury return amid their extended unbeaten streak as Euro 2024 champions. England trails closely at 12.8% on squad depth and Nations League form, while France's 11.1% reflects a resilient 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil March 26 despite a second-half red card to Dayot Upamecano. Argentina holds 9.8% as defending champions post a narrow 2-1 friendly vs. Mauritania, but Brazil dips to 8.6% after that loss exposing ongoing inconsistencies. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field with golden generations peaking across confederations, balanced group draws, and minimal separation in recent qualifier wrap-ups and tune-up results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$424,998,511 Vol.
$424,998,511 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$424,998,511 Vol.
$424,998,511 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's trader consensus lead at 15.8% implied probability stems from their gritty UEFA playoff qualification over Netherlands on penalties March 23—advancing after 2-2 and 3-3 draws—and a commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia March 27, highlighted by Mikel Oyarzabal's brace and Rodri's injury return amid their extended unbeaten streak as Euro 2024 champions. England trails closely at 12.8% on squad depth and Nations League form, while France's 11.1% reflects a resilient 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil March 26 despite a second-half red card to Dayot Upamecano. Argentina holds 9.8% as defending champions post a narrow 2-1 friendly vs. Mauritania, but Brazil dips to 8.6% after that loss exposing ongoing inconsistencies. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field with golden generations peaking across confederations, balanced group draws, and minimal separation in recent qualifier wrap-ups and tune-up results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions