Scottie Scheffler's unmatched Augusta National course history—two green jacket wins in 2022 and 2024, never outside the top 20 in six prior starts—anchors his position as trader consensus favorite at 14.5% implied probability, bolstered by 68 straight PGA Tour cuts made and elite par-5 scoring suited to the layout's demands. Yet the race stays tightly bunched with Bryson DeChambeau surging via back-to-back LIV Golf victories in Singapore and South Africa over the past two weeks, Jon Rahm's consistent major contention as a past champion, and Rory McIlroy's defense of his 2025 title after completing the career Grand Slam. A deep field, minor injury concerns like Collin Morikawa's recent back issue, and the Valero Texas Open's final tune-up keep probabilities competitive, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this unpredictable major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedScottie Scheffler 15%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 7.5%
Rory McIlroy 7%
$61,395,357 Vol.
$61,395,357 Vol.
Scottie Scheffler
15%
Bryson Dechambeau
8%
Jon Rahm
8%
Rory McIlroy
7%
Ludvig Aberg
5%
Matt Fitzpatrick
5%
Xander Schauffele
5%
Cameron Young
3%
Justin Rose
3%
Collin Morikawa
3%
Tommy Fleetwood
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
3%
Jordan Spieth
3%
Akshay Bhatia
2%
Brooks Koepka
2%
Patrick Reed
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Sepp Straka
2%
Justin Thomas
2%
Shane Lowry
2%
Viktor Hovland
2%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Adam Scott
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Tyrrell Hatton
1%
Patrick Cantlay
1%
Jason Day
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Sungjae Im
1%
Max Homa
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Wyndham Clark
1%
Will Zalatoris
1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Keegan Bradley
<1%
Tiger Woods
<1%
Tony Finau
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Sergio Garcia
<1%
Thomas Detry
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Billy Horschel
<1%
Phil Mickelson
<1%
Charl Schwartzel
<1%
Aaron Rai
<1%
Bubba Watson
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Danny Willett
<1%
Byeong Hun An
<1%
Fred Couples
<1%
Zach Johnson
<1%
Davis Thompson
<1%
Denny McCarthy
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Scottie Scheffler 15%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 7.5%
Rory McIlroy 7%
$61,395,357 Vol.
$61,395,357 Vol.
Scottie Scheffler
15%
Bryson Dechambeau
8%
Jon Rahm
8%
Rory McIlroy
7%
Ludvig Aberg
5%
Matt Fitzpatrick
5%
Xander Schauffele
5%
Cameron Young
3%
Justin Rose
3%
Collin Morikawa
3%
Tommy Fleetwood
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
3%
Jordan Spieth
3%
Akshay Bhatia
2%
Brooks Koepka
2%
Patrick Reed
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Sepp Straka
2%
Justin Thomas
2%
Shane Lowry
2%
Viktor Hovland
2%
Robert MacIntyre
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Adam Scott
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Tyrrell Hatton
1%
Patrick Cantlay
1%
Jason Day
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Maverick McNealy
1%
Sungjae Im
1%
Max Homa
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Wyndham Clark
1%
Will Zalatoris
1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Keegan Bradley
<1%
Tiger Woods
<1%
Tony Finau
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Sergio Garcia
<1%
Thomas Detry
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Billy Horschel
<1%
Phil Mickelson
<1%
Charl Schwartzel
<1%
Aaron Rai
<1%
Bubba Watson
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Danny Willett
<1%
Byeong Hun An
<1%
Fred Couples
<1%
Zach Johnson
<1%
Davis Thompson
<1%
Denny McCarthy
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.
If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2025, 11:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.
If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Scottie Scheffler's unmatched Augusta National course history—two green jacket wins in 2022 and 2024, never outside the top 20 in six prior starts—anchors his position as trader consensus favorite at 14.5% implied probability, bolstered by 68 straight PGA Tour cuts made and elite par-5 scoring suited to the layout's demands. Yet the race stays tightly bunched with Bryson DeChambeau surging via back-to-back LIV Golf victories in Singapore and South Africa over the past two weeks, Jon Rahm's consistent major contention as a past champion, and Rory McIlroy's defense of his 2025 title after completing the career Grand Slam. A deep field, minor injury concerns like Collin Morikawa's recent back issue, and the Valero Texas Open's final tune-up keep probabilities competitive, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this unpredictable major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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