Spain leads Polymarket's trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their world number one ranking, Euro 2024 triumph, and 18-month unbeaten run anchored by Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri's midfield mastery. England (12.8%) and France (11.1%) keep pace with peak golden generations, Bellingham's emergence, and Mbappé-led depth, while Argentina (9.8%) leverages Messi-era cohesion and Brazil (8.6%) boasts raw talent despite inconsistencies. Late March intercontinental playoffs confirmed elite qualifications without shocks, and the December final draw yielded balanced groups in the expanded 48-team tournament, underscoring multifaceted paths to glory and preventing any dominance amid recent qualifier successes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,570,405 Vol.
$416,570,405 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,570,405 Vol.
$416,570,405 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads Polymarket's trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their world number one ranking, Euro 2024 triumph, and 18-month unbeaten run anchored by Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri's midfield mastery. England (12.8%) and France (11.1%) keep pace with peak golden generations, Bellingham's emergence, and Mbappé-led depth, while Argentina (9.8%) leverages Messi-era cohesion and Brazil (8.6%) boasts raw talent despite inconsistencies. Late March intercontinental playoffs confirmed elite qualifications without shocks, and the December final draw yielded balanced groups in the expanded 48-team tournament, underscoring multifaceted paths to glory and preventing any dominance amid recent qualifier successes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions