Arsenal tops trader consensus at 26.5% implied probability to win the UEFA Champions League after a flawless 8-0-0 league phase record topping the standings with 24 points, followed by a comfortable round-of-16 advancement and a favorable quarterfinal matchup against Sporting CP. Bayern Munich sits close at 22.5% on the back of their near-perfect 21-point league phase and potent attack, though facing a stern test versus Real Madrid in the quarters. Barcelona (16.5%) and PSG (12.5%) reflect solid knockout progression amid defending-champion form for the Parisians, while Liverpool (7.5%) and Real Madrid (10.5%) trail in a bunched field, underscoring the knockout phase's volatility with blockbuster clashes and upset potential keeping the race tight ahead of first legs in early April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArsenal 27%
Bayern Munich 23%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
$221,101,418 Vol.
$221,101,418 Vol.
Arsenal
27%
Bayern Munich
23%
Barcelona
17%
PSG
13%
Real Madrid
11%
Liverpool
8%
Atletico Madrid
3%
Sporting
1%
Club Brugge
<1%
Arsenal 27%
Bayern Munich 23%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 13%
$221,101,418 Vol.
$221,101,418 Vol.
Arsenal
27%
Bayern Munich
23%
Barcelona
17%
PSG
13%
Real Madrid
11%
Liverpool
8%
Atletico Madrid
3%
Sporting
1%
Club Brugge
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2025, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".
If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Arsenal tops trader consensus at 26.5% implied probability to win the UEFA Champions League after a flawless 8-0-0 league phase record topping the standings with 24 points, followed by a comfortable round-of-16 advancement and a favorable quarterfinal matchup against Sporting CP. Bayern Munich sits close at 22.5% on the back of their near-perfect 21-point league phase and potent attack, though facing a stern test versus Real Madrid in the quarters. Barcelona (16.5%) and PSG (12.5%) reflect solid knockout progression amid defending-champion form for the Parisians, while Liverpool (7.5%) and Real Madrid (10.5%) trail in a bunched field, underscoring the knockout phase's volatility with blockbuster clashes and upset potential keeping the race tight ahead of first legs in early April.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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