Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 dominance, seamless UEFA qualification, and young stars like Lamine Yamal driving Nations League form, but the market remains tightly contested with no clear favorite amid an expanded 48-team format where 32 teams advance from group stage. England (12.8%) gains from Jude Bellingham's emergence and early qualification security, France (11%) surged after a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) face headwinds from Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's season-ending injury, respectively. Portugal (6.8%) and Norway (3%) linger with Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland as X-factors, underscoring the depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL contenders just 73 days from kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$418,809,119 Vol.
$418,809,119 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$418,809,119 Vol.
$418,809,119 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 dominance, seamless UEFA qualification, and young stars like Lamine Yamal driving Nations League form, but the market remains tightly contested with no clear favorite amid an expanded 48-team format where 32 teams advance from group stage. England (12.8%) gains from Jude Bellingham's emergence and early qualification security, France (11%) surged after a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) face headwinds from Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's season-ending injury, respectively. Portugal (6.8%) and Norway (3%) linger with Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland as X-factors, underscoring the depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL contenders just 73 days from kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions