Trader consensus slightly favors Spain at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dramatic UEFA playoff advancement over the Netherlands on penalties March 23 after a 5-5 aggregate thriller, preserving an unbeaten qualifying run rooted in Euro 2024 glory and stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. England (12.8%) and France (11.1%) trail closely, with the latter boosted by a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26 where Kylian Mbappé scored, underscoring defensive resilience despite a deep 48-team field. Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and talent-laden contenders, but recent form parity, balanced group stage draws, and knockout unpredictability keep the race tight among Europe's elite and South American powers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.0%
Argentina 9.8%
$417,626,453 Vol.
$417,626,453 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.0%
Argentina 9.8%
$417,626,453 Vol.
$417,626,453 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus slightly favors Spain at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dramatic UEFA playoff advancement over the Netherlands on penalties March 23 after a 5-5 aggregate thriller, preserving an unbeaten qualifying run rooted in Euro 2024 glory and stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. England (12.8%) and France (11.1%) trail closely, with the latter boosted by a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26 where Kylian Mbappé scored, underscoring defensive resilience despite a deep 48-team field. Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and talent-laden contenders, but recent form parity, balanced group stage draws, and knockout unpredictability keep the race tight among Europe's elite and South American powers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions