Trader consensus prices Spain atop 2026 FIFA World Cup winner odds at 15.8% implied probability, driven by their unbeaten streak across 27 matches—including a 3-0 friendly rout of Serbia last week—and sustained momentum from Euro 2024 glory with stars like Lamine Yamal thriving. Yet the race stays tight into the low teens for England and France amid UEFA playoff drama, such as Sweden's 3-1 semifinal win over Ukraine and Poland edging Albania 2-1, signaling Europe's depth. South American qualifiers wrapped with Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay advancing directly, but mounting injuries to Rodrygo, Nico Williams, Raphinha, and Phil Foden across contenders, plus the expanded 48-team format advancing 32 sides from groups, amplify upset risks in the North America-hosted tournament starting June 11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,024,338 Vol.
$416,024,338 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,024,338 Vol.
$416,024,338 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices Spain atop 2026 FIFA World Cup winner odds at 15.8% implied probability, driven by their unbeaten streak across 27 matches—including a 3-0 friendly rout of Serbia last week—and sustained momentum from Euro 2024 glory with stars like Lamine Yamal thriving. Yet the race stays tight into the low teens for England and France amid UEFA playoff drama, such as Sweden's 3-1 semifinal win over Ukraine and Poland edging Albania 2-1, signaling Europe's depth. South American qualifiers wrapped with Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay advancing directly, but mounting injuries to Rodrygo, Nico Williams, Raphinha, and Phil Foden across contenders, plus the expanded 48-team format advancing 32 sides from groups, amplify upset risks in the North America-hosted tournament starting June 11.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions