Spain's slight edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability stems from their commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week—highlighted by Mikel Oyarzabal's brace—building on Euro 2024 glory and a youthful core featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri, paired with a favorable Group H draw against Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Yet the market remains tightly bunched through England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and Argentina (9.8%) due to navigable groups for all top contenders, France's recent triumphs over Brazil and Colombia signaling Mbappé-led firepower, England's resilience in a 1-1 Uruguay draw, and the defending champions' CONMEBOL-topping qualification run, underscoring the 48-team format's depth and upset potential ahead of the June kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,133,946 Vol.
$425,133,946 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$425,133,946 Vol.
$425,133,946 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's slight edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability stems from their commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week—highlighted by Mikel Oyarzabal's brace—building on Euro 2024 glory and a youthful core featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri, paired with a favorable Group H draw against Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Yet the market remains tightly bunched through England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and Argentina (9.8%) due to navigable groups for all top contenders, France's recent triumphs over Brazil and Colombia signaling Mbappé-led firepower, England's resilience in a 1-1 Uruguay draw, and the defending champions' CONMEBOL-topping qualification run, underscoring the 48-team format's depth and upset potential ahead of the June kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions