Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title, Nations League dominance, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal peaking at the right time, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and defending champions Argentina (9.8%) clustered close behind after flawless UEFA and CONMEBOL qualifying runs. Recent March playoffs secured the final spots without upsets among elites, underscoring a deep 48-team field where Brazil's Carlo Ancelotti rebuild and Portugal's Ronaldo farewell add volatility. Home advantages for hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico dilute European/South American edges, while uncertain group draws, aging stars like Messi, and injury risks keep probabilities competitive across multiple powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,991,732 Vol.
$416,991,732 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$416,991,732 Vol.
$416,991,732 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title, Nations League dominance, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal peaking at the right time, but the race stays tight with England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and defending champions Argentina (9.8%) clustered close behind after flawless UEFA and CONMEBOL qualifying runs. Recent March playoffs secured the final spots without upsets among elites, underscoring a deep 48-team field where Brazil's Carlo Ancelotti rebuild and Portugal's Ronaldo farewell add volatility. Home advantages for hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico dilute European/South American edges, while uncertain group draws, aging stars like Messi, and injury risks keep probabilities competitive across multiple powerhouses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions