Spain edges trader consensus as the 15.8% implied probability favorite for the FIFA World Cup 2026 title, propelled by their seamless Euro 2024 championship form, early UEFA qualifying dominance, and young stars like Lamine Yamal maintaining momentum through March friendlies against Argentina and Egypt. Yet the market stays tightly bunched—England at 12.8%, France 11.1%, Argentina 9.8%, Brazil 8.6%—highlighting competitive parity: England's squad depth offsets tournament heartbreaks, France boasts Mbappé-led firepower despite Nations League dips, Argentina leverages Messi's experience post-Copa América triumphs amid aging concerns, and Brazil navigates a rebuild with historic pedigree. With qualifiers wrapped (42 of 48 teams set post-March playoffs) and groups undrawn, the expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential and travel factors across USA, Canada, and Mexico hosts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$426,302,097 Vol.
$426,302,097 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$426,302,097 Vol.
$426,302,097 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain edges trader consensus as the 15.8% implied probability favorite for the FIFA World Cup 2026 title, propelled by their seamless Euro 2024 championship form, early UEFA qualifying dominance, and young stars like Lamine Yamal maintaining momentum through March friendlies against Argentina and Egypt. Yet the market stays tightly bunched—England at 12.8%, France 11.1%, Argentina 9.8%, Brazil 8.6%—highlighting competitive parity: England's squad depth offsets tournament heartbreaks, France boasts Mbappé-led firepower despite Nations League dips, Argentina leverages Messi's experience post-Copa América triumphs amid aging concerns, and Brazil navigates a rebuild with historic pedigree. With qualifiers wrapped (42 of 48 teams set post-March playoffs) and groups undrawn, the expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential and travel factors across USA, Canada, and Mexico hosts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions