Recent strength in S&P 500 corporate earnings, particularly AI-related revenue growth exceeding 30% year-over-year at major technology firms, has supported trader expectations for an end-2026 close above 8,000 despite the index trading near 7,700 in late September. Analyst targets cluster between 7,800 and 8,100, reflecting upward EPS revisions to around $350–365 for the year amid resilient GDP and labor data. However, the 36.5% probability on the top bracket and 45.5% combined on the 7,000–8,000 ranges also incorporate recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75–4.00% range, surging Treasury yields, and persistent inflation above 4% that have compressed forward multiples. Key near-term catalysts include October–December economic releases and any further monetary policy signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 38%
$7,500-$8,000 24%
$7,000-$7,500 21%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$44,839 Vol.
$44,839 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
8%
$6,000-$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
10%
$7,000-$7,500
21%
$7,500-$8,000
24%
>$8,000
38%
>$8,000 38%
$7,500-$8,000 24%
$7,000-$7,500 21%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$44,839 Vol.
$44,839 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$23,732 Vol.
8%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,380 Vol.
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,657 Vol.
10%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,774 Vol.
21%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,333 Vol.
24%
>$8,000
$6,963 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent strength in S&P 500 corporate earnings, particularly AI-related revenue growth exceeding 30% year-over-year at major technology firms, has supported trader expectations for an end-2026 close above 8,000 despite the index trading near 7,700 in late September. Analyst targets cluster between 7,800 and 8,100, reflecting upward EPS revisions to around $350–365 for the year amid resilient GDP and labor data. However, the 36.5% probability on the top bracket and 45.5% combined on the 7,000–8,000 ranges also incorporate recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75–4.00% range, surging Treasury yields, and persistent inflation above 4% that have compressed forward multiples. Key near-term catalysts include October–December economic releases and any further monetary policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$44,839End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent strength in S&P 500 corporate earnings, particularly AI-related revenue growth exceeding 30% year-over-year at major technology firms, has supported trader expectations for an end-2026 close above 8,000 despite the index trading near 7,700 in late September. Analyst targets cluster between 7,800 and 8,100, reflecting upward EPS revisions to around $350–365 for the year amid resilient GDP and labor data. However, the 36.5% probability on the top bracket and 45.5% combined on the 7,000–8,000 ranges also incorporate recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75–4.00% range, surging Treasury yields, and persistent inflation above 4% that have compressed forward multiples. Key near-term catalysts include October–December economic releases and any further monetary policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$44,839End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Recent strength in S&P 500 corporate earnings, particularly AI-related revenue growth exceeding 30% year-over-year at major technology firms, has supported trader expectations for an end-2026 close above 8,000 despite the index trading near 7,700 in late September. Analyst targets cluster between 7,800 and 8,100, reflecting upward EPS revisions to around $350–365 for the year amid resilient GDP and labor data. However, the 36.5% probability on the top bracket and 45.5% combined on the 7,000–8,000 ranges also incorporate recent Federal Reserve rate hikes to the 3.75–4.00% range, surging Treasury yields, and persistent inflation above 4% that have compressed forward multiples. Key near-term catalysts include October–December economic releases and any further monetary policy signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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