Market icon
財務·フレディ・マック

30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？

Market icon
財務·フレディ・マック

30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？

$43,345 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$43,345 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 7.00％

$13 Vol.

41%

↑ 6.75%

$0 Vol.

49%

↑ 6.50％

$6,451 Vol.

78%

↓ 5.90%

$0 Vol.

47%

↓ 5.70％

$6,769 Vol.

41%

↓ 5.50%

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.30-year fixed mortgage rates have surged to around 6.5% in late March 2026, up sharply from 6.0% earlier in the month, closely tracking the 10-year Treasury yield's climb to 4.44% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC dot plot held median federal funds projections at 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus for modest easing despite persistent price pressures, with Fannie Mae forecasting rates dipping to 5.7% by December. Key catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could sustain elevated yields and dampen prospects for sub-6% mortgages later in the year.

30-year fixed mortgage rates have surged to around 6.5% in late March 2026, up sharply from 6.0% earlier in the month, closely tracking the 10-year Treasury yield's climb to 4.44% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC dot plot held median federal funds projections at 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus for modest easing despite persistent price pressures, with Fannie Mae forecasting rates dipping to 5.7% by December. Key catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could sustain elevated yields and dampen prospects for sub-6% mortgages later in the year.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.30-year fixed mortgage rates have surged to around 6.5% in late March 2026, up sharply from 6.0% earlier in the month, closely tracking the 10-year Treasury yield's climb to 4.44% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC dot plot held median federal funds projections at 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus for modest easing despite persistent price pressures, with Fannie Mae forecasting rates dipping to 5.7% by December. Key catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could sustain elevated yields and dampen prospects for sub-6% mortgages later in the year.

30-year fixed mortgage rates have surged to around 6.5% in late March 2026, up sharply from 6.0% earlier in the month, closely tracking the 10-year Treasury yield's climb to 4.44% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC dot plot held median federal funds projections at 3.4% by year-end 2026, reflecting trader consensus for modest easing despite persistent price pressures, with Fannie Mae forecasting rates dipping to 5.7% by December. Key catalysts include the March CPI release on April 10 and the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could sustain elevated yields and dampen prospects for sub-6% mortgages later in the year.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「↑ 6.30％」で100%、次いで「↑ 6.20%」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？」は$43.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 3, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「↑ 6.30％」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「↑ 6.20%」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「30年間の住宅ローン金利は2026年に__に達するでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。