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政治·文化

他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？

Market icon
政治·文化

他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？

はい

4% chance
Polymarket

$19,420 Vol.

はい

4% chance
Polymarket

$19,420 Vol.

Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify. The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no additional countries boycotting Eurovision 2026, with "No" implying a 96.1% probability, driven by the absence of fresh announcements since the initial wave of withdrawals in December 2025—Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Iceland cited Israel's participation amid Gaza tensions. The European Broadcasting Union finalized a 35-country participant list for the Vienna-hosted contest on December 15, signaling stability, and no new political pressures or protests have emerged in the past three months to prompt further exits. Even amid lingering BDS calls, broadcasters like the Netherlands continue coverage. With the March 31 deadline days away, realistic upsets would require a sudden geopolitical flare-up or last-minute government reversal, though historical patterns show boycotts cluster early in the cycle.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no additional countries boycotting Eurovision 2026, with "No" implying a 96.1% probability, driven by the absence of fresh announcements since the initial wave of withdrawals in December 2025—Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Iceland cited Israel's participation amid Gaza tensions. The European Broadcasting Union finalized a 35-country participant list for the Vienna-hosted contest on December 15, signaling stability, and no new political pressures or protests have emerged in the past three months to prompt further exits. Even amid lingering BDS calls, broadcasters like the Netherlands continue coverage. With the March 31 deadline days away, realistic upsets would require a sudden geopolitical flare-up or last-minute government reversal, though historical patterns show boycotts cluster early in the cycle.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify. The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no additional countries boycotting Eurovision 2026, with "No" implying a 96.1% probability, driven by the absence of fresh announcements since the initial wave of withdrawals in December 2025—Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Iceland cited Israel's participation amid Gaza tensions. The European Broadcasting Union finalized a 35-country participant list for the Vienna-hosted contest on December 15, signaling stability, and no new political pressures or protests have emerged in the past three months to prompt further exits. Even amid lingering BDS calls, broadcasters like the Netherlands continue coverage. With the March 31 deadline days away, realistic upsets would require a sudden geopolitical flare-up or last-minute government reversal, though historical patterns show boycotts cluster early in the cycle.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no additional countries boycotting Eurovision 2026, with "No" implying a 96.1% probability, driven by the absence of fresh announcements since the initial wave of withdrawals in December 2025—Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Iceland cited Israel's participation amid Gaza tensions. The European Broadcasting Union finalized a 35-country participant list for the Vienna-hosted contest on December 15, signaling stability, and no new political pressures or protests have emerged in the past three months to prompt further exits. Even amid lingering BDS calls, broadcasters like the Netherlands continue coverage. With the March 31 deadline days away, realistic upsets would require a sudden geopolitical flare-up or last-minute government reversal, though historical patterns show boycotts cluster early in the cycle.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年3月31日までに、別の国がユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」で4%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、4¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に4%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」は$19.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」の現在のリーダーは「2026年3月31日までに、別の国がユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」でわずか4%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「他の国は2026年3月31日までにユーロビジョン2026をボイコットしますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。