The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and regime leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict after failed nuclear negotiations. Ongoing daily US-Israeli operations, including recent hits on fuel depots near Mashhad and internal security sites, have degraded Iran's capabilities amid Tehran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. President Trump vowed intensified strikes in an April 2 address, signaling no near-term de-escalation before April 30 resolution. UK, France, and Germany have signaled readiness for defensive actions against Iranian projectiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia weigh direct involvement following attacks on their territory, amid threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$717,344 Vol.
2026/04/30
UAE
15%
Saudi Arabia
14%
Bahrain
5%
Kuwait
4%
Turkey
4%
Qatar
4%
Any E.U. Country
4%
UK
3%
Jordan
3%
France
3%
Oman
2%
Germany
1%
Canada
1%
$717,344 Vol.
UAE
$162,953 Vol.
15%
Saudi Arabia
$133,341 Vol.
14%
Bahrain
$7,505 Vol.
5%
Kuwait
$4,125 Vol.
4%
Turkey
$23,217 Vol.
4%
Qatar
$1,265 Vol.
4%
Any E.U. Country
$10,775 Vol.
4%
UK
$113,355 Vol.
3%
Jordan
$1,373 Vol.
3%
France
$152,833 Vol.
3%
Oman
$1,308 Vol.
2%
Germany
$82,563 Vol.
1%
Canada
$22,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and regime leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict after failed nuclear negotiations. Ongoing daily US-Israeli operations, including recent hits on fuel depots near Mashhad and internal security sites, have degraded Iran's capabilities amid Tehran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. President Trump vowed intensified strikes in an April 2 address, signaling no near-term de-escalation before April 30 resolution. UK, France, and Germany have signaled readiness for defensive actions against Iranian projectiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia weigh direct involvement following attacks on their territory, amid threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
音量
$717,344終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and regime leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict after failed nuclear negotiations. Ongoing daily US-Israeli operations, including recent hits on fuel depots near Mashhad and internal security sites, have degraded Iran's capabilities amid Tehran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. President Trump vowed intensified strikes in an April 2 address, signaling no near-term de-escalation before April 30 resolution. UK, France, and Germany have signaled readiness for defensive actions against Iranian projectiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia weigh direct involvement following attacks on their territory, amid threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$717,344終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and regime leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—marking the onset of open conflict after failed nuclear negotiations. Ongoing daily US-Israeli operations, including recent hits on fuel depots near Mashhad and internal security sites, have degraded Iran's capabilities amid Tehran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and US bases in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. President Trump vowed intensified strikes in an April 2 address, signaling no near-term de-escalation before April 30 resolution. UK, France, and Germany have signaled readiness for defensive actions against Iranian projectiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia weigh direct involvement following attacks on their territory, amid threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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