President Trump's October 30, 2025, directive to resume nuclear weapons testing preparations—citing alleged Chinese and Russian violations of testing moratoria—sparked market interest, but no nuclear explosive test has occurred by April 2026, with the Department of Energy confirming focus on subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site. February State Department accusations of China's 2020 clandestine test and ongoing preparations heightened tensions, while a March Senate hearing saw a top official not rule out underground detonations. Congressional opposition, including Rep. Titus's HALT Act, and NNSA's 18-36 month readiness timeline temper near-term expectations. Trader consensus weighs geopolitical pressures against CTBT moratorium adherence and the upcoming NPT review conference April 27-May 22.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$610,219 Vol.
2026/09/30
2026年6月30日
3%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
$610,219 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$0 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 30, 2025, directive to resume nuclear weapons testing preparations—citing alleged Chinese and Russian violations of testing moratoria—sparked market interest, but no nuclear explosive test has occurred by April 2026, with the Department of Energy confirming focus on subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site. February State Department accusations of China's 2020 clandestine test and ongoing preparations heightened tensions, while a March Senate hearing saw a top official not rule out underground detonations. Congressional opposition, including Rep. Titus's HALT Act, and NNSA's 18-36 month readiness timeline temper near-term expectations. Trader consensus weighs geopolitical pressures against CTBT moratorium adherence and the upcoming NPT review conference April 27-May 22.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$610,219終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 30, 2025, directive to resume nuclear weapons testing preparations—citing alleged Chinese and Russian violations of testing moratoria—sparked market interest, but no nuclear explosive test has occurred by April 2026, with the Department of Energy confirming focus on subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site. February State Department accusations of China's 2020 clandestine test and ongoing preparations heightened tensions, while a March Senate hearing saw a top official not rule out underground detonations. Congressional opposition, including Rep. Titus's HALT Act, and NNSA's 18-36 month readiness timeline temper near-term expectations. Trader consensus weighs geopolitical pressures against CTBT moratorium adherence and the upcoming NPT review conference April 27-May 22.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$610,219終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 30, 2025, directive to resume nuclear weapons testing preparations—citing alleged Chinese and Russian violations of testing moratoria—sparked market interest, but no nuclear explosive test has occurred by April 2026, with the Department of Energy confirming focus on subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site. February State Department accusations of China's 2020 clandestine test and ongoing preparations heightened tensions, while a March Senate hearing saw a top official not rule out underground detonations. Congressional opposition, including Rep. Titus's HALT Act, and NNSA's 18-36 month readiness timeline temper near-term expectations. Trader consensus weighs geopolitical pressures against CTBT moratorium adherence and the upcoming NPT review conference April 27-May 22.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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