The Trump administration continues deliberating implementation of President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with adversaries, following State Department accusations of covert low-yield tests by Russia in 2019 and China in 2020. On March 24, 2026, Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno testified that no decisions have been made on testing modalities, amid internal assessments highlighting U.S. disadvantages from its 1992 moratorium. No explosive test has occurred—the longest such gap since 1945—and nominee for STRATCOM commander Admiral Richard Correll stated on March 26 there is no need for warhead tests. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to technical readiness timelines (historically 24-36 months), congressional funding requirements under the FY2026 NDAA, Nevada-based opposition, and risks of sparking a global testing chain reaction, with no scheduled detonations ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$611,084 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
2%
September 30, 2026
10%
December 31, 2026
14%
$611,084 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$50 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 Vol.
10%
December 31, 2026
$693 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration continues deliberating implementation of President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with adversaries, following State Department accusations of covert low-yield tests by Russia in 2019 and China in 2020. On March 24, 2026, Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno testified that no decisions have been made on testing modalities, amid internal assessments highlighting U.S. disadvantages from its 1992 moratorium. No explosive test has occurred—the longest such gap since 1945—and nominee for STRATCOM commander Admiral Richard Correll stated on March 26 there is no need for warhead tests. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to technical readiness timelines (historically 24-36 months), congressional funding requirements under the FY2026 NDAA, Nevada-based opposition, and risks of sparking a global testing chain reaction, with no scheduled detonations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$611,084終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration continues deliberating implementation of President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with adversaries, following State Department accusations of covert low-yield tests by Russia in 2019 and China in 2020. On March 24, 2026, Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno testified that no decisions have been made on testing modalities, amid internal assessments highlighting U.S. disadvantages from its 1992 moratorium. No explosive test has occurred—the longest such gap since 1945—and nominee for STRATCOM commander Admiral Richard Correll stated on March 26 there is no need for warhead tests. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to technical readiness timelines (historically 24-36 months), congressional funding requirements under the FY2026 NDAA, Nevada-based opposition, and risks of sparking a global testing chain reaction, with no scheduled detonations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$611,084終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration continues deliberating implementation of President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with adversaries, following State Department accusations of covert low-yield tests by Russia in 2019 and China in 2020. On March 24, 2026, Undersecretary Thomas DiNanno testified that no decisions have been made on testing modalities, amid internal assessments highlighting U.S. disadvantages from its 1992 moratorium. No explosive test has occurred—the longest such gap since 1945—and nominee for STRATCOM commander Admiral Richard Correll stated on March 26 there is no need for warhead tests. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities due to technical readiness timelines (historically 24-36 months), congressional funding requirements under the FY2026 NDAA, Nevada-based opposition, and risks of sparking a global testing chain reaction, with no scheduled detonations ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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