Trader consensus on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflects escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration amid intelligence assessments alleging covert low-yield tests by China and Russia, which prompted the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act to authorize resumption of underground tests for the first time since the 1992 moratorium. A March 25 Washington Times report cited a senior State Department official stating preparations are underway at the Nevada National Security Site, though NNSA has announced no scheduled detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Key hurdles include diplomatic fallout risking Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, technical readiness timelines of months to years, and congressional oversight on DOE funding. Watch for presidential directives, NNSA updates, or adversary escalations that could accelerate decisions before year-end dates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$610,984 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年6月30日
2%
September 30, 2026
8%
December 31, 2026
18%
$610,984 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$0 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 Vol.
8%
December 31, 2026
$643 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflects escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration amid intelligence assessments alleging covert low-yield tests by China and Russia, which prompted the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act to authorize resumption of underground tests for the first time since the 1992 moratorium. A March 25 Washington Times report cited a senior State Department official stating preparations are underway at the Nevada National Security Site, though NNSA has announced no scheduled detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Key hurdles include diplomatic fallout risking Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, technical readiness timelines of months to years, and congressional oversight on DOE funding. Watch for presidential directives, NNSA updates, or adversary escalations that could accelerate decisions before year-end dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$610,984終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflects escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration amid intelligence assessments alleging covert low-yield tests by China and Russia, which prompted the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act to authorize resumption of underground tests for the first time since the 1992 moratorium. A March 25 Washington Times report cited a senior State Department official stating preparations are underway at the Nevada National Security Site, though NNSA has announced no scheduled detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Key hurdles include diplomatic fallout risking Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, technical readiness timelines of months to years, and congressional oversight on DOE funding. Watch for presidential directives, NNSA updates, or adversary escalations that could accelerate decisions before year-end dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$610,984終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on U.S. nuclear explosive testing reflects escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration amid intelligence assessments alleging covert low-yield tests by China and Russia, which prompted the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act to authorize resumption of underground tests for the first time since the 1992 moratorium. A March 25 Washington Times report cited a senior State Department official stating preparations are underway at the Nevada National Security Site, though NNSA has announced no scheduled detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Key hurdles include diplomatic fallout risking Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, technical readiness timelines of months to years, and congressional oversight on DOE funding. Watch for presidential directives, NNSA updates, or adversary escalations that could accelerate decisions before year-end dates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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