Amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, including Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and a limited ground incursion launched early October, the U.S. State Department has authorized only voluntary departures of non-essential personnel and family members from the Beirut embassy, maintaining full operations with enhanced security. No ordered departure or non-combatant evacuation operation has been announced, aligning with historical U.S. policy of sustaining diplomatic presence in tense regions absent direct threats to the facility. Traders' 90.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this measured response, ongoing de-escalation diplomacy via U.S. mediators, and the six-month horizon to April 30, with no imminent catalysts signaling a shift. Late-breaking escalations like refugee surges or attacks on U.S. assets could alter consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
音量
$1,531終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$1,531終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon, including Israeli airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and a limited ground incursion launched early October, the U.S. State Department has authorized only voluntary departures of non-essential personnel and family members from the Beirut embassy, maintaining full operations with enhanced security. No ordered departure or non-combatant evacuation operation has been announced, aligning with historical U.S. policy of sustaining diplomatic presence in tense regions absent direct threats to the facility. Traders' 90.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this measured response, ongoing de-escalation diplomacy via U.S. mediators, and the six-month horizon to April 30, with no imminent catalysts signaling a shift. Late-breaking escalations like refugee surges or attacks on U.S. assets could alter consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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