Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, anchored by persistent congressional gridlock and the Trump administration's innovation-first approach. The White House's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes federal preemption of state AI development regulations to enhance U.S. competitiveness, while eschewing stringent safety mandates amid industry lobbying. No federal bills—such as the introduced Protect American AI Act or Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI measures—have advanced past committees, with recent focus on defense authorizations and appropriations lacking AI safety provisions. State-level patchwork on chatbots and deepfakes persists, but divided 119th Congress dynamics and impending midterms dim lame-duck passage hopes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$87,584 Vol.
$87,584 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$87,584 Vol.
$87,584 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, anchored by persistent congressional gridlock and the Trump administration's innovation-first approach. The White House's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes federal preemption of state AI development regulations to enhance U.S. competitiveness, while eschewing stringent safety mandates amid industry lobbying. No federal bills—such as the introduced Protect American AI Act or Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI measures—have advanced past committees, with recent focus on defense authorizations and appropriations lacking AI safety provisions. State-level patchwork on chatbots and deepfakes persists, but divided 119th Congress dynamics and impending midterms dim lame-duck passage hopes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$87,584終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, anchored by persistent congressional gridlock and the Trump administration's innovation-first approach. The White House's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes federal preemption of state AI development regulations to enhance U.S. competitiveness, while eschewing stringent safety mandates amid industry lobbying. No federal bills—such as the introduced Protect American AI Act or Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI measures—have advanced past committees, with recent focus on defense authorizations and appropriations lacking AI safety provisions. State-level patchwork on chatbots and deepfakes persists, but divided 119th Congress dynamics and impending midterms dim lame-duck passage hopes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$87,584終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 82% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, anchored by persistent congressional gridlock and the Trump administration's innovation-first approach. The White House's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes federal preemption of state AI development regulations to enhance U.S. competitiveness, while eschewing stringent safety mandates amid industry lobbying. No federal bills—such as the introduced Protect American AI Act or Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI measures—have advanced past committees, with recent focus on defense authorizations and appropriations lacking AI safety provisions. State-level patchwork on chatbots and deepfakes persists, but divided 119th Congress dynamics and impending midterms dim lame-duck passage hopes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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