Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a federal AI safety bill before 2027, driven by legislative gridlock in a divided 119th Congress and the Trump administration's March 20, 2026, release of a National AI Legislative Framework emphasizing light-touch regulation, innovation acceleration, and preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates. Despite introduced bills like H.R. 6402 (Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI) and H.R. 6304 (AI for America Act) remaining stalled at introduction since late 2025, no committee advancements or floor votes have materialized amid partisan divides and 2026 midterm priorities. Proliferating state AI measures—25 enacted by early April—highlight federal inaction, with upcoming hearings unlikely to yield passage before year-end deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$87,578 Vol.
$87,578 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$87,578 Vol.
$87,578 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a federal AI safety bill before 2027, driven by legislative gridlock in a divided 119th Congress and the Trump administration's March 20, 2026, release of a National AI Legislative Framework emphasizing light-touch regulation, innovation acceleration, and preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates. Despite introduced bills like H.R. 6402 (Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI) and H.R. 6304 (AI for America Act) remaining stalled at introduction since late 2025, no committee advancements or floor votes have materialized amid partisan divides and 2026 midterm priorities. Proliferating state AI measures—25 enacted by early April—highlight federal inaction, with upcoming hearings unlikely to yield passage before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$87,578終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a federal AI safety bill before 2027, driven by legislative gridlock in a divided 119th Congress and the Trump administration's March 20, 2026, release of a National AI Legislative Framework emphasizing light-touch regulation, innovation acceleration, and preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates. Despite introduced bills like H.R. 6402 (Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI) and H.R. 6304 (AI for America Act) remaining stalled at introduction since late 2025, no committee advancements or floor votes have materialized amid partisan divides and 2026 midterm priorities. Proliferating state AI measures—25 enacted by early April—highlight federal inaction, with upcoming hearings unlikely to yield passage before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$87,578終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a federal AI safety bill before 2027, driven by legislative gridlock in a divided 119th Congress and the Trump administration's March 20, 2026, release of a National AI Legislative Framework emphasizing light-touch regulation, innovation acceleration, and preemption of state laws over stringent safety mandates. Despite introduced bills like H.R. 6402 (Ensuring Safe and Ethical AI) and H.R. 6304 (AI for America Act) remaining stalled at introduction since late 2025, no committee advancements or floor votes have materialized amid partisan divides and 2026 midterm priorities. Proliferating state AI measures—25 enacted by early April—highlight federal inaction, with upcoming hearings unlikely to yield passage before year-end deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問