Ongoing litigation in Pennsylvania over mail ballots received after Election Day has elevated trader consensus to a 67.5% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar their counting. Following the November 20 Commonwealth Court ruling invalidating certain late-arriving ballots lacking legible postmarks or postmarked after November 5, Democrats appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which heard arguments last week and may rule soon—potentially triggering a SCOTUS emergency stay request from Republicans. The Court's 6-3 conservative majority, emphasis on strict election deadlines under precedents like Purcell v. Gonzalez, and post-election context without pre-election deference explain the shift, as traders weigh certification pressures in this battleground state against historical shadow docket interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
NEW
$13,074 Vol.
NEW
$13,074 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
NEW
$13,074 Vol.
NEW
$13,074 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$13,074終了日
Aug 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$13,074終了日
Aug 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing litigation in Pennsylvania over mail ballots received after Election Day has elevated trader consensus to a 67.5% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar their counting. Following the November 20 Commonwealth Court ruling invalidating certain late-arriving ballots lacking legible postmarks or postmarked after November 5, Democrats appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which heard arguments last week and may rule soon—potentially triggering a SCOTUS emergency stay request from Republicans. The Court's 6-3 conservative majority, emphasis on strict election deadlines under precedents like Purcell v. Gonzalez, and post-election context without pre-election deference explain the shift, as traders weigh certification pressures in this battleground state against historical shadow docket interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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