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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 34%

ディアス=カネル - キューバ大統領 32%

スターマー - 英国首相 11%

メルツ - ドイツ首相 4.6%

Polymarket

$48,233 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相 34%

ディアス=カネル - キューバ大統領 32%

スターマー - 英国首相 11%

メルツ - ドイツ首相 4.6%

Polymarket

$48,233 Vol.

オルバン - ハンガリー首相

$2,484 Vol.

34%

ディアス=カネル - キューバ大統領

$2,252 Vol.

32%

スターマー - 英国首相

$2,994 Vol.

11%

メルツ - ドイツ首相

$1,683 Vol.

5%

ゼレンスキー - ウクライナ大統領

$1,810 Vol.

4%

アル=シャラー - シリア大統領

$1,577 Vol.

3%

サンチェス - スペイン首相

$1,495 Vol.

3%

トランプ - アメリカ大統領

$1,891 Vol.

3%

2027年以前なし

$1,520 Vol.

3%

ロドリゲス - ベネズエラ代理大統領

$2,375 Vol.

3%

シェインバウム - メキシコ大統領

$2,056 Vol.

3%

マクロン - フランス大統領

$1,765 Vol.

2%

プーチン - ロシア大統領

$2,412 Vol.

2%

ペトロ - コロンビア大統領

$2,059 Vol.

2%

エルドアン - トルコ大統領

$2,059 Vol.

2%

ルコルニュ - フランス首相

$1,790 Vol.

2%

ネタニヤフ - イスラエル首相

$2,260 Vol.

2%

高市 - 日本の首相

$1,477 Vol.

2%

アッバース - パレスチナ大統領

$1,975 Vol.

2%

金正恩 - 北朝鮮最高指導者

$1,623 Vol.

1%

ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ - ブラジル大統領

$2,167 Vol.

1%

習近平 - 中国共産党総書記

$1,496 Vol.

1%

ニューサム - カリフォルニア州知事

$1,519 Vol.

1%

ミレイ - アルゼンチン大統領

$1,493 Vol.

1%

アルバニージー - オーストラリア首相

$2,000 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$48,233
終了日
Dec 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "オルバン - ハンガリー首相" at 34%, followed by "ディアス=カネル - キューバ大統領" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $48.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "オルバン - ハンガリー首相" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ディアス=カネル - キューバ大統領" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.