Next leader out of power before 2027?
Next leader out of power before 2027?
Orbán - Hungary PM 34%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 23%
Starmer - UK PM 18%
Lecornu - France PM 4.1%
$44,084 Vol.
$44,084 Vol.
Orbán - Hungary PM
34%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
23%
Starmer - UK PM
18%
Lecornu - France PM
4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
None before 2027
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
3%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Trump - USA President
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
2%
Putin - Russia President
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
1%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Macron - France President
1%
Milei - Argentina President
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
6%
Newsom - California Governor
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM 34%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 23%
Starmer - UK PM 18%
Lecornu - France PM 4.1%
$44,084 Vol.
$44,084 Vol.
Orbán - Hungary PM
34%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
23%
Starmer - UK PM
18%
Lecornu - France PM
4%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3%
None before 2027
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
3%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
2%
Trump - USA President
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
2%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
2%
Putin - Russia President
2%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
2%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
2%
Takaichi - Japan PM
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
1%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Macron - France President
1%
Milei - Argentina President
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
6%
Newsom - California Governor
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...
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Frequently Asked Questions