Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Seattle high of 56-57°F on March 20, driven by the National Weather Service's point forecast of 56°F under persistent cool marine air and light northerly winds suppressing instability. High-resolution models like HRRR and RAP ensembles converge on peaks in this narrow band, aligning with Seattle's March climatology—average highs near 56°F—and recent soundings showing capped boundary layers limiting convective heating. Verified observations from Sea-Tac Airport through midday confirm trajectories below 57°F. Realistic challenges include an unlikely abrupt ridge amplification or foehn-like downslope warming from the Cascades, which could nudge readings to 58°F+, but current 1000-500mb thickness maps render this improbable at under 5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Seattle on March 20?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 20?
56-57°F 100.0%
43°F or below <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
43°F or below
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
43°F or below <1%
44-45°F <1%
46-47°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
43°F or below
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Seattle high of 56-57°F on March 20, driven by the National Weather Service's point forecast of 56°F under persistent cool marine air and light northerly winds suppressing instability. High-resolution models like HRRR and RAP ensembles converge on peaks in this narrow band, aligning with Seattle's March climatology—average highs near 56°F—and recent soundings showing capped boundary layers limiting convective heating. Verified observations from Sea-Tac Airport through midday confirm trajectories below 57°F. Realistic challenges include an unlikely abrupt ridge amplification or foehn-like downslope warming from the Cascades, which could nudge readings to 58°F+, but current 1000-500mb thickness maps render this improbable at under 5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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