National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles on March 25 indicate a high temperature peaking around 66°F under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 10-20 mph enhancing marine layer persistence, driving the market's 98.4% implied probability for 69°F or below. This aligns with recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing persistent cool air advection from the Pacific, suppressing daytime heating amid typical late-March climatology where historical highs average 70°F but rarely exceed 75°F under similar onshore flow. Breezy conditions and low-level stratus clouds limit solar insolation, reinforcing trader consensus. Upside risks include unexpected clearing after 2 PM or weaker winds allowing brief warming to low 70s, though official observations through evening will confirm the peak. New hourly updates from NOAA stations could shift sentiment if mid-afternoon temps approach 70°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
69°F or below 98.8%
74-75°F 1.9%
70-71°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$58,557 Vol.
$58,557 Vol.
69°F or below
99%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
69°F or below 98.8%
74-75°F 1.9%
70-71°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$58,557 Vol.
$58,557 Vol.
69°F or below
99%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Los Angeles on March 25 indicate a high temperature peaking around 66°F under mostly cloudy skies with northwest winds of 10-20 mph enhancing marine layer persistence, driving the market's 98.4% implied probability for 69°F or below. This aligns with recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs showing persistent cool air advection from the Pacific, suppressing daytime heating amid typical late-March climatology where historical highs average 70°F but rarely exceed 75°F under similar onshore flow. Breezy conditions and low-level stratus clouds limit solar insolation, reinforcing trader consensus. Upside risks include unexpected clearing after 2 PM or weaker winds allowing brief warming to low 70s, though official observations through evening will confirm the peak. New hourly updates from NOAA stations could shift sentiment if mid-afternoon temps approach 70°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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