Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (29%) and 19°C (28.5%) as Chongqing's highest temperature on March 24, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting peaks in this narrow band amid mild southerly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show afternoon highs stabilizing around 18.5°C after morning lows near 12°C, with low precipitation risk enabling solar heating but urban heat island effects in Chongqing amplifying variability by 1°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 17°C, yet this year's warmer baseline from La Niña decay differentiates outcomes; model spread on boundary layer mixing creates the razor-thin odds split, as even minor convective activity could cap at 18°C versus clearer skies pushing 19°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
18°C 34%
19°C 29%
17°C 11%
20°C or higher 11%
$71,549 Vol.
$71,549 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C
30%
19°C
29%
20°C or higher
11%
18°C 34%
19°C 29%
17°C 11%
20°C or higher 11%
$71,549 Vol.
$71,549 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C
30%
19°C
29%
20°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (29%) and 19°C (28.5%) as Chongqing's highest temperature on March 24, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting peaks in this narrow band amid mild southerly airflow and partial cloud cover. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show afternoon highs stabilizing around 18.5°C after morning lows near 12°C, with low precipitation risk enabling solar heating but urban heat island effects in Chongqing amplifying variability by 1°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 17°C, yet this year's warmer baseline from La Niña decay differentiates outcomes; model spread on boundary layer mixing creates the razor-thin odds split, as even minor convective activity could cap at 18°C versus clearer skies pushing 19°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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