Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 14-16°C for Tokyo's March 23 high temperature, with 15°C leading at 28.5% amid variable predictions for afternoon peak heating. Late-March historical averages near 14°C provide baseline context, but recent southerly airflow and above-normal spring mildness have elevated sentiment for warmer outcomes, while uncertainty in cloud cover and sea breeze timing differentiates the top contenders—partial sunshine could push to 16°C (20.5%), fuller overcast favoring 14°C (23.5%) or 13°C (19.0%). Urban heat island amplification adds ~1-2°C potential, with new model runs expected to refine diurnal ranges.