Latest weather model ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS point to a high of 11°C in Ankara on March 22 as the dominant outcome, driving 77.5% implied probability amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates confirm this, with hourly projections peaking near 11°C under overcast skies and light winds, aligning with Ankara's March climatology where highs average 11-13°C but current synoptic patterns suppress warmth. The 18.5% odds for 12°C reflect minor model spread from slight clearing possibilities, while negligible probabilities for 13°C+ dismiss absent ridging; traders await MGM's final morning bulletin for confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 80%
12°C 21%
13°C 1.0%
15°C <1%
$255,647 Vol.
$255,647 Vol.
10°C
<1%
11°C
80%
12°C
21%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 80%
12°C 21%
13°C 1.0%
15°C <1%
$255,647 Vol.
$255,647 Vol.
10°C
<1%
11°C
80%
12°C
21%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest weather model ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS point to a high of 11°C in Ankara on March 22 as the dominant outcome, driving 77.5% implied probability amid a cool northerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates confirm this, with hourly projections peaking near 11°C under overcast skies and light winds, aligning with Ankara's March climatology where highs average 11-13°C but current synoptic patterns suppress warmth. The 18.5% odds for 12°C reflect minor model spread from slight clearing possibilities, while negligible probabilities for 13°C+ dismiss absent ridging; traders await MGM's final morning bulletin for confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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