Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (37.5%) and 12°C (30.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest forecast of a 12°C peak amid partly cloudy skies, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering at 11.5–12°C. Differentiating factors include diurnal heating cycles peaking mid-afternoon at Esenboğa Airport station, where minor cloud variability or jet stream shifts could cap highs at 11°C versus clearer conditions pushing to 12°C; 10°C (17.5%) reflects outlier cooler model runs amid recent cold air advection. Historical March 23 averages near 13°C provide context, but this year's mild southerly flow tempers extremes, with final 12Z updates pivotal for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
11°C 38%
12°C 31%
10°C 18%
13°C 7.4%
$47,011 Vol.
$47,011 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
6%
10°C
18%
11°C
38%
12°C
31%
13°C
7%
14°C or higher
1%
11°C 38%
12°C 31%
10°C 18%
13°C 7.4%
$47,011 Vol.
$47,011 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
6%
10°C
18%
11°C
38%
12°C
31%
13°C
7%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 11°C (37.5%) and 12°C (30.5%) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 23, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's latest forecast of a 12°C peak amid partly cloudy skies, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering at 11.5–12°C. Differentiating factors include diurnal heating cycles peaking mid-afternoon at Esenboğa Airport station, where minor cloud variability or jet stream shifts could cap highs at 11°C versus clearer conditions pushing to 12°C; 10°C (17.5%) reflects outlier cooler model runs amid recent cold air advection. Historical March 23 averages near 13°C provide context, but this year's mild southerly flow tempers extremes, with final 12Z updates pivotal for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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