Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 10-20 years of prison time at 32% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, anchored by his upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022, while no prison time trails closely at 26% amid ongoing appeals and the April 2024 overturning of his New York sex crimes verdict due to judicial errors. Recent bail denial in September solidified his detention despite health woes, but competitive dynamics hinge on the New York retrial—expected in early 2025—and California appeal outcomes, with potential for combined sentences pushing toward 20-30 years (22.6%) or full reversals. Legal unpredictability in high-profile #MeToo cases keeps odds fluid as courts weigh retrial evidence and precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
10〜20年 32.0%
実刑なし 26.2%
20〜30年 22.5%
5～10年 8.2%
$681,556 Vol.
$681,556 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
実刑なし
26%
5年未満
6%
5～10年
8%
10〜20年
32%
20〜30年
23%
30年以上
4%
10〜20年 32.0%
実刑なし 26.2%
20〜30年 22.5%
5～10年 8.2%
$681,556 Vol.
$681,556 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
実刑なし
$291,741 Vol.
26%
5年未満
$48,755 Vol.
6%
5～10年
$34,695 Vol.
8%
10〜20年
$120,864 Vol.
32%
20〜30年
$151,065 Vol.
23%
30年以上
$34,437 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 10-20 years of prison time at 32% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, anchored by his upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022, while no prison time trails closely at 26% amid ongoing appeals and the April 2024 overturning of his New York sex crimes verdict due to judicial errors. Recent bail denial in September solidified his detention despite health woes, but competitive dynamics hinge on the New York retrial—expected in early 2025—and California appeal outcomes, with potential for combined sentences pushing toward 20-30 years (22.6%) or full reversals. Legal unpredictability in high-profile #MeToo cases keeps odds fluid as courts weigh retrial evidence and precedents.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
音量
$681,556終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 10-20 years of prison time at 32% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, anchored by his upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022, while no prison time trails closely at 26% amid ongoing appeals and the April 2024 overturning of his New York sex crimes verdict due to judicial errors. Recent bail denial in September solidified his detention despite health woes, but competitive dynamics hinge on the New York retrial—expected in early 2025—and California appeal outcomes, with potential for combined sentences pushing toward 20-30 years (22.6%) or full reversals. Legal unpredictability in high-profile #MeToo cases keeps odds fluid as courts weigh retrial evidence and precedents.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$681,556終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 10-20 years of prison time at 32% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, anchored by his upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022, while no prison time trails closely at 26% amid ongoing appeals and the April 2024 overturning of his New York sex crimes verdict due to judicial errors. Recent bail denial in September solidified his detention despite health woes, but competitive dynamics hinge on the New York retrial—expected in early 2025—and California appeal outcomes, with potential for combined sentences pushing toward 20-30 years (22.6%) or full reversals. Legal unpredictability in high-profile #MeToo cases keeps odds fluid as courts weigh retrial evidence and precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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