Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time reflects deep uncertainty fueled by his ongoing New York retrial set for April 14 and pending appeals, with No Prison Time edging ahead at 30.1% implied probability due to his history of a overturned 2020 conviction, a recent mixed 2025 verdict (guilty on one criminal sexual act count, mistrial on rape), and potential plea deal to resolve the remaining charge. Closely trailing 10-20 years (22.2%) and 20-30 years (22%) odds stem from his consecutive 16-year California rape sentence—appeal pending—while his March 10 Rikers Island interview highlighted failing health (cancer, heart issues at age 73), raising compassionate release speculation. Key differentiators include trial outcomes, sentencing on the upheld New York count, and appeal successes amid #MeToo legal precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
実刑なし 29.8%
20〜30年 21.6%
10〜20年 21.5%
5年未満 9.4%
$685,169 Vol.
$685,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
実刑なし
30%
5年未満
9%
5～10年
9%
10〜20年
22%
20〜30年
22%
30年以上
7%
実刑なし 29.8%
20〜30年 21.6%
10〜20年 21.5%
5年未満 9.4%
$685,169 Vol.
$685,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
実刑なし
$292,644 Vol.
30%
5年未満
$49,274 Vol.
9%
5～10年
$35,490 Vol.
9%
10〜20年
$121,168 Vol.
22%
20〜30年
$151,611 Vol.
22%
30年以上
$34,984 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time reflects deep uncertainty fueled by his ongoing New York retrial set for April 14 and pending appeals, with No Prison Time edging ahead at 30.1% implied probability due to his history of a overturned 2020 conviction, a recent mixed 2025 verdict (guilty on one criminal sexual act count, mistrial on rape), and potential plea deal to resolve the remaining charge. Closely trailing 10-20 years (22.2%) and 20-30 years (22%) odds stem from his consecutive 16-year California rape sentence—appeal pending—while his March 10 Rikers Island interview highlighted failing health (cancer, heart issues at age 73), raising compassionate release speculation. Key differentiators include trial outcomes, sentencing on the upheld New York count, and appeal successes amid #MeToo legal precedents.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
音量
$685,169終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time reflects deep uncertainty fueled by his ongoing New York retrial set for April 14 and pending appeals, with No Prison Time edging ahead at 30.1% implied probability due to his history of a overturned 2020 conviction, a recent mixed 2025 verdict (guilty on one criminal sexual act count, mistrial on rape), and potential plea deal to resolve the remaining charge. Closely trailing 10-20 years (22.2%) and 20-30 years (22%) odds stem from his consecutive 16-year California rape sentence—appeal pending—while his March 10 Rikers Island interview highlighted failing health (cancer, heart issues at age 73), raising compassionate release speculation. Key differentiators include trial outcomes, sentencing on the upheld New York count, and appeal successes amid #MeToo legal precedents.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$685,169終了日
Dec 31, 2025マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time reflects deep uncertainty fueled by his ongoing New York retrial set for April 14 and pending appeals, with No Prison Time edging ahead at 30.1% implied probability due to his history of a overturned 2020 conviction, a recent mixed 2025 verdict (guilty on one criminal sexual act count, mistrial on rape), and potential plea deal to resolve the remaining charge. Closely trailing 10-20 years (22.2%) and 20-30 years (22%) odds stem from his consecutive 16-year California rape sentence—appeal pending—while his March 10 Rikers Island interview highlighted failing health (cancer, heart issues at age 73), raising compassionate release speculation. Key differentiators include trial outcomes, sentencing on the upheld New York count, and appeal successes amid #MeToo legal precedents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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