Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 78.5% in Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driven by recent polls showing interim Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic challengers like Alexander Vindman by 3–8 points. An Emerson College survey (March 29–31) had Moody at 46% to Vindman's 38% among likely voters, while a Public Policy Polling release (April 2–3) showed 43%–40%; averages across matchups hold similar edges. Despite Democrats flipping two state Senate seats in late March special elections amid low GOP turnout, Florida's Republican lean—evident in 2024 validation recalls and Gov. DeSantis's +10 approval—bolsters Moody's incumbency edge ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,429 Vol.
$32,429 Vol.
共和党
79%
民主党
22%
$32,429 Vol.
$32,429 Vol.
共和党
$17,008 Vol.
79%
民主党
$15,420 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 78.5% in Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driven by recent polls showing interim Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic challengers like Alexander Vindman by 3–8 points. An Emerson College survey (March 29–31) had Moody at 46% to Vindman's 38% among likely voters, while a Public Policy Polling release (April 2–3) showed 43%–40%; averages across matchups hold similar edges. Despite Democrats flipping two state Senate seats in late March special elections amid low GOP turnout, Florida's Republican lean—evident in 2024 validation recalls and Gov. DeSantis's +10 approval—bolsters Moody's incumbency edge ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
音量
$32,429マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 78.5% in Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driven by recent polls showing interim Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic challengers like Alexander Vindman by 3–8 points. An Emerson College survey (March 29–31) had Moody at 46% to Vindman's 38% among likely voters, while a Public Policy Polling release (April 2–3) showed 43%–40%; averages across matchups hold similar edges. Despite Democrats flipping two state Senate seats in late March special elections amid low GOP turnout, Florida's Republican lean—evident in 2024 validation recalls and Gov. DeSantis's +10 approval—bolsters Moody's incumbency edge ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$32,429マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 78.5% in Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driven by recent polls showing interim Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic challengers like Alexander Vindman by 3–8 points. An Emerson College survey (March 29–31) had Moody at 46% to Vindman's 38% among likely voters, while a Public Policy Polling release (April 2–3) showed 43%–40%; averages across matchups hold similar edges. Despite Democrats flipping two state Senate seats in late March special elections amid low GOP turnout, Florida's Republican lean—evident in 2024 validation recalls and Gov. DeSantis's +10 approval—bolsters Moody's incumbency edge ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primaries.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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