US intelligence assessments, including a March 11 Reuters report, indicate the Iranian regime faces no imminent risk of collapse despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities as recently as March 29 and ongoing economic strains from the 2026 Iran war. Tehran has exploited the conflict to tighten repression, cracking down on dissent and protests while leadership remains intact, countering President Trump's disputed claims of regime change. Absent mass uprisings, verified military desertions, or internal fractures, traders reflect this resilience in the 93.5% "No" probability by May 31, though intensified strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
$194,497 Vol.
$194,497 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$194,497 Vol.
$194,497 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US intelligence assessments, including a March 11 Reuters report, indicate the Iranian regime faces no imminent risk of collapse despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities as recently as March 29 and ongoing economic strains from the 2026 Iran war. Tehran has exploited the conflict to tighten repression, cracking down on dissent and protests while leadership remains intact, countering President Trump's disputed claims of regime change. Absent mass uprisings, verified military desertions, or internal fractures, traders reflect this resilience in the 93.5% "No" probability by May 31, though intensified strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$194,497Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US intelligence assessments, including a March 11 Reuters report, indicate the Iranian regime faces no imminent risk of collapse despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities as recently as March 29 and ongoing economic strains from the 2026 Iran war. Tehran has exploited the conflict to tighten repression, cracking down on dissent and protests while leadership remains intact, countering President Trump's disputed claims of regime change. Absent mass uprisings, verified military desertions, or internal fractures, traders reflect this resilience in the 93.5% "No" probability by May 31, though intensified strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,497Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including a March 11 Reuters report, indicate the Iranian regime faces no imminent risk of collapse despite US and Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities as recently as March 29 and ongoing economic strains from the 2026 Iran war. Tehran has exploited the conflict to tighten repression, cracking down on dissent and protests while leadership remains intact, countering President Trump's disputed claims of regime change. Absent mass uprisings, verified military desertions, or internal fractures, traders reflect this resilience in the 93.5% "No" probability by May 31, though intensified strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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