Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no US announcement of military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's cautious posture amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei on February 28 and prompted Iranian missile retaliation against regional bases. Despite early March reports of CIA efforts to arm Kurdish fighters—following a February Kurdish alliance formation—and President Trump's reported private pledges of air cover to anti-regime Kurds in calls with Iraqi and Iranian leaders, no official White House, State Department, or Defense Department statement has confirmed such support. Congressional analyses note unverified proxy actions but highlight escalation risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and IRGC intimidation of uprisings. With three days remaining, late-breaking diplomacy or regime collapse could shift odds, though structural barriers to overt commitment persist.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis annoncent un soutien militaire aux Kurdes en Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?
Les États-Unis annoncent un soutien militaire aux Kurdes en Iran d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$471,919 Vol.
$471,919 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$471,919 Vol.
$471,919 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no US announcement of military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's cautious posture amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei on February 28 and prompted Iranian missile retaliation against regional bases. Despite early March reports of CIA efforts to arm Kurdish fighters—following a February Kurdish alliance formation—and President Trump's reported private pledges of air cover to anti-regime Kurds in calls with Iraqi and Iranian leaders, no official White House, State Department, or Defense Department statement has confirmed such support. Congressional analyses note unverified proxy actions but highlight escalation risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and IRGC intimidation of uprisings. With three days remaining, late-breaking diplomacy or regime collapse could shift odds, though structural barriers to overt commitment persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$471,919Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no US announcement of military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's cautious posture amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei on February 28 and prompted Iranian missile retaliation against regional bases. Despite early March reports of CIA efforts to arm Kurdish fighters—following a February Kurdish alliance formation—and President Trump's reported private pledges of air cover to anti-regime Kurds in calls with Iraqi and Iranian leaders, no official White House, State Department, or Defense Department statement has confirmed such support. Congressional analyses note unverified proxy actions but highlight escalation risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and IRGC intimidation of uprisings. With three days remaining, late-breaking diplomacy or regime collapse could shift odds, though structural barriers to overt commitment persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$471,919Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no US announcement of military support for Kurds in Iran by March 31, reflecting the Trump administration's cautious posture amid ongoing US-Israel airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei on February 28 and prompted Iranian missile retaliation against regional bases. Despite early March reports of CIA efforts to arm Kurdish fighters—following a February Kurdish alliance formation—and President Trump's reported private pledges of air cover to anti-regime Kurds in calls with Iraqi and Iranian leaders, no official White House, State Department, or Defense Department statement has confirmed such support. Congressional analyses note unverified proxy actions but highlight escalation risks, including Strait of Hormuz tensions and IRGC intimidation of uprisings. With three days remaining, late-breaking diplomacy or regime collapse could shift odds, though structural barriers to overt commitment persist.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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