Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PJAK, PAK, and Komala, have coordinated through the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to pursue regime change and Kurdish self-determination or federal autonomy within Iran rather than formal secession. Public statements from coalition members emphasize multi-ethnic democratic governance and participation in a post-regime Iran, aligning with longstanding patterns where these groups have prioritized local administration over state formation. Heightened activity amid the 2026 Iran conflict, including strikes and protests, has focused on weakening central authority without territorial declarations. This consensus on non-separatist objectives underpins the 97% trader-implied probability against an independence declaration by the June 2026 resolution date. An abrupt power vacuum or major external military backing could still create limited scope for shifts in stated goals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes Kurdes déclarent leur indépendance de l'Iran ?
Les Kurdes déclarent leur indépendance de l'Iran ?
Oui
$142,633 Vol.
$142,633 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$142,633 Vol.
$142,633 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PJAK, PAK, and Komala, have coordinated through the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to pursue regime change and Kurdish self-determination or federal autonomy within Iran rather than formal secession. Public statements from coalition members emphasize multi-ethnic democratic governance and participation in a post-regime Iran, aligning with longstanding patterns where these groups have prioritized local administration over state formation. Heightened activity amid the 2026 Iran conflict, including strikes and protests, has focused on weakening central authority without territorial declarations. This consensus on non-separatist objectives underpins the 97% trader-implied probability against an independence declaration by the June 2026 resolution date. An abrupt power vacuum or major external military backing could still create limited scope for shifts in stated goals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$142,633Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PJAK, PAK, and Komala, have coordinated through the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to pursue regime change and Kurdish self-determination or federal autonomy within Iran rather than formal secession. Public statements from coalition members emphasize multi-ethnic democratic governance and participation in a post-regime Iran, aligning with longstanding patterns where these groups have prioritized local administration over state formation. Heightened activity amid the 2026 Iran conflict, including strikes and protests, has focused on weakening central authority without territorial declarations. This consensus on non-separatist objectives underpins the 97% trader-implied probability against an independence declaration by the June 2026 resolution date. An abrupt power vacuum or major external military backing could still create limited scope for shifts in stated goals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$142,633Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PJAK, PAK, and Komala, have coordinated through the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to pursue regime change and Kurdish self-determination or federal autonomy within Iran rather than formal secession. Public statements from coalition members emphasize multi-ethnic democratic governance and participation in a post-regime Iran, aligning with longstanding patterns where these groups have prioritized local administration over state formation. Heightened activity amid the 2026 Iran conflict, including strikes and protests, has focused on weakening central authority without territorial declarations. This consensus on non-separatist objectives underpins the 97% trader-implied probability against an independence declaration by the June 2026 resolution date. An abrupt power vacuum or major external military backing could still create limited scope for shifts in stated goals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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