Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including those in the February 2026 Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, have focused statements and planning on self-determination, democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas, and potential autonomy or federal arrangements within a post-regime Iran rather than outright secession. Ongoing US and Israeli military pressure on Tehran, alongside reported discussions of limited support for Kurdish groups to foster instability, has not produced any formal declaration of an independent state or assertion of exclusive territorial control by PJAK, PDKI, or allied organizations. Traders assign 96.4% probability to “No” by the June 30, 2026 resolution date due to these groups’ modest capacity, regional opposition from Iran and Turkey, and historical caution following past unfulfilled external backing. A sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or explicit policy shift endorsing full independence remain low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.