Polymarket traders price a modest 35% implied probability for silver (SI) futures surpassing $25/oz by March 31, reflecting caution amid spot prices hovering near $23.20/oz after a 5% YTD rally fueled by easing Fed rate cut bets and robust industrial demand from solar panels and EVs. Key drivers include a strengthening USD index (DXY at 104.5) pressuring precious metals, though gold's outperformance (GLD up 8%) offers spillover upside. Watch March 12 CPI release and March 20 FOMC for pivot signals—dovish tones could boost odds above 50%, while hot inflation risks capping gains below $24.50 resistance. Trader consensus weighs recession fears against supply tightness from top producers Mexico and Peru.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$920,790 Vol.
↑ 200 $
<1%
↑ 170 $
<1%
↑ 150 $
<1%
↑ 140 $
1%
↑ 130 $
1%
↑ 125 $
1%
↑ 120 $
1%
↑ 115 $
1%
↑ 110 $
1%
↑ 105 $
1%
↑ 100 $
2%
↑ 95 $
4%
↓ 65 $
56%
↓ 60 $
16%
↓ 50 $
5%
↓ 40 $
1%
↓ 25 $
1%
$920,790 Vol.
↑ 200 $
<1%
↑ 170 $
<1%
↑ 150 $
<1%
↑ 140 $
1%
↑ 130 $
1%
↑ 125 $
1%
↑ 120 $
1%
↑ 115 $
1%
↑ 110 $
1%
↑ 105 $
1%
↑ 100 $
2%
↑ 95 $
4%
↓ 65 $
56%
↓ 60 $
16%
↓ 50 $
5%
↓ 40 $
1%
↓ 25 $
1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
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Résultat final: Oui
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0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a modest 35% implied probability for silver (SI) futures surpassing $25/oz by March 31, reflecting caution amid spot prices hovering near $23.20/oz after a 5% YTD rally fueled by easing Fed rate cut bets and robust industrial demand from solar panels and EVs. Key drivers include a strengthening USD index (DXY at 104.5) pressuring precious metals, though gold's outperformance (GLD up 8%) offers spillover upside. Watch March 12 CPI release and March 20 FOMC for pivot signals—dovish tones could boost odds above 50%, while hot inflation risks capping gains below $24.50 resistance. Trader consensus weighs recession fears against supply tightness from top producers Mexico and Peru.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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