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Géopolitique·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$24,789 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$24,789 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$15,286 Vol.

14%

30 avril

$9,503 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts following recent military actions that have weakened Tehran's capabilities, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the administration's lead figure for potential direct diplomacy, with Iranian officials signaling a preference for engaging him over envoys like Jared Kushner amid trust deficits. White House statements confirm Vance's involvement in national security discussions on Iran, bolstered by President Trump's public optimism and reports of Pakistan proposing to host mediated talks in Islamabad next week, where Vance may participate. A recent tense phone call between Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in which Vance questioned regime-change prospects, underscores diplomatic maneuvering. No direct Vance-Iranian negotiator contacts are confirmed, driving trader consensus to a 16% implied probability by March 31 but 47% by April 30, with Pakistan's mediation and scheduled channels as key near-term catalysts.

Amid U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts following recent military actions that have weakened Tehran's capabilities, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the administration's lead figure for potential direct diplomacy, with Iranian officials signaling a preference for engaging him over envoys like Jared Kushner amid trust deficits. White House statements confirm Vance's involvement in national security discussions on Iran, bolstered by President Trump's public optimism and reports of Pakistan proposing to host mediated talks in Islamabad next week, where Vance may participate. A recent tense phone call between Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in which Vance questioned regime-change prospects, underscores diplomatic maneuvering. No direct Vance-Iranian negotiator contacts are confirmed, driving trader consensus to a 16% implied probability by March 31 but 47% by April 30, with Pakistan's mediation and scheduled channels as key near-term catalysts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts following recent military actions that have weakened Tehran's capabilities, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the administration's lead figure for potential direct diplomacy, with Iranian officials signaling a preference for engaging him over envoys like Jared Kushner amid trust deficits. White House statements confirm Vance's involvement in national security discussions on Iran, bolstered by President Trump's public optimism and reports of Pakistan proposing to host mediated talks in Islamabad next week, where Vance may participate. A recent tense phone call between Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in which Vance questioned regime-change prospects, underscores diplomatic maneuvering. No direct Vance-Iranian negotiator contacts are confirmed, driving trader consensus to a 16% implied probability by March 31 but 47% by April 30, with Pakistan's mediation and scheduled channels as key near-term catalysts.

Amid U.S.-Iran de-escalation efforts following recent military actions that have weakened Tehran's capabilities, Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the administration's lead figure for potential direct diplomacy, with Iranian officials signaling a preference for engaging him over envoys like Jared Kushner amid trust deficits. White House statements confirm Vance's involvement in national security discussions on Iran, bolstered by President Trump's public optimism and reports of Pakistan proposing to host mediated talks in Islamabad next week, where Vance may participate. A recent tense phone call between Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in which Vance questioned regime-change prospects, underscores diplomatic maneuvering. No direct Vance-Iranian negotiator contacts are confirmed, driving trader consensus to a 16% implied probability by March 31 but 47% by April 30, with Pakistan's mediation and scheduled channels as key near-term catalysts.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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« Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 avril » à 47%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 47¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » a généré $24.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 24, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

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Le favori actuel pour « Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...? » est « 30 avril » à 47%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 14%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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