Persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation data have driven gold futures (GC) to near-record highs around $2,660/oz, fueling trader optimism on Polymarket where implied probabilities hover near 60% for surpassing $2,800 by March 31. A weakening U.S. dollar—down 2% YTD against major currencies—and robust central bank buying, including China's recent 15-tonne addition, bolster bullish sentiment, countering fiscal policy risks from potential tariff hikes. Key catalysts ahead include January 15 CPI release, which could confirm 2% inflation trajectory for March FOMC cuts, and February nonfarm payrolls; a miss below 150K jobs might push GC above $2,750 thresholds, amplifying upside resolution odds. Historical precedents show gold rallying 5-10% post-pigeonhole Fed signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'or (GC) atteindra-t-il __ d'ici la fin du mois de mars ?
L'or (GC) atteindra-t-il __ d'ici la fin du mois de mars ?
$2,597,132 Vol.
↑ 10 000 $
<1%
↑ 7 000 $
<1%
↑ 6 600 $
<1%
↑ 6 400 $
<1%
↑ 6 200 $
<1%
↑ 6 000 $
<1%
↑ 5 800 $
<1%
↑ 5 600 $
1%
↑ 5 500 $
1%
↑ 5 400 $
1%
↓ 4 300 $
17%
↓ 4 000 $
4%
↓ 3 600 $
1%
↓ 3 000 $
<1%
$2,597,132 Vol.
↑ 10 000 $
<1%
↑ 7 000 $
<1%
↑ 6 600 $
<1%
↑ 6 400 $
<1%
↑ 6 200 $
<1%
↑ 6 000 $
<1%
↑ 5 800 $
<1%
↑ 5 600 $
1%
↑ 5 500 $
1%
↑ 5 400 $
1%
↓ 4 300 $
17%
↓ 4 000 $
4%
↓ 3 600 $
1%
↓ 3 000 $
<1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid cooling inflation data have driven gold futures (GC) to near-record highs around $2,660/oz, fueling trader optimism on Polymarket where implied probabilities hover near 60% for surpassing $2,800 by March 31. A weakening U.S. dollar—down 2% YTD against major currencies—and robust central bank buying, including China's recent 15-tonne addition, bolster bullish sentiment, countering fiscal policy risks from potential tariff hikes. Key catalysts ahead include January 15 CPI release, which could confirm 2% inflation trajectory for March FOMC cuts, and February nonfarm payrolls; a miss below 150K jobs might push GC above $2,750 thresholds, amplifying upside resolution odds. Historical precedents show gold rallying 5-10% post-pigeonhole Fed signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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