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Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

Market icon
Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

déc. 31

déc. 31

$763,426 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$763,426 Vol.

Polymarket

Kash Patel

$117,528 Vol.

77%

Tulsi Gabbard

$5,857 Vol.

61%

Kristi Noem

$83,772 Vol.

59%

Howard Lutnick

$32,522 Vol.

53%

Lee Zeldin

$23,703 Vol.

52%

Karoline Leavitt

$9,608 Vol.

44%

Pete Hegseth

$8,328 Vol.

41%

Tom Homan

$33 Vol.

24%

Dan Scavino

$0 Vol.

39%

John Ratcliffe

$0 Vol.

39%

Susie Wiles

$38,990 Vol.

34%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$63,132 Vol.

27%

Russell Vought

$129 Vol.

17%

David Sacks

$5,891 Vol.

26%

Scott Bessent

$397 Vol.

22%

Marco Rubio

$2,576 Vol.

21%

Stephen Miller

$495 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors FBI Director Kash Patel (77% implied probability) to leave the Trump administration before 2027, driven by a late-March Iranian cyber breach that hacked and leaked his personal Gmail inbox, exposing sensitive details and surging his odds. DNI Tulsi Gabbard (63%) and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem (60%) follow closely amid reports of President Trump polling advisors on their potential firings over Iran war policy disputes, following Noem's recent reassignment and Attorney General Pam Bondi's abrupt Thursday ouster—framed as a transition but highlighting high cabinet turnover. Joe Kent's March 17 resignation as counterterrorism chief over Iran escalation adds to dissent signals, with budget battles and ongoing Middle East tensions as key upcoming catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$763,426
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors FBI Director Kash Patel (77% implied probability) to leave the Trump administration before 2027, driven by a late-March Iranian cyber breach that hacked and leaked his personal Gmail inbox, exposing sensitive details and surging his odds. DNI Tulsi Gabbard (63%) and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem (60%) follow closely amid reports of President Trump polling advisors on their potential firings over Iran war policy disputes, following Noem's recent reassignment and Attorney General Pam Bondi's abrupt Thursday ouster—framed as a transition but highlighting high cabinet turnover. Joe Kent's March 17 resignation as counterterrorism chief over Iran escalation adds to dissent signals, with budget battles and ongoing Middle East tensions as key upcoming catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$763,426
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 19 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Pam Bondi » à 100%, suivi de « Dan Bongino » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » a généré $763.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 19 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est « Pam Bondi » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Dan Bongino » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.