Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket for the top AI model by April's end, driven by its unchallenged dominance atop LMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboards across text, coding, and reasoning benchmarks since early March 2026. Traders' strong consensus reflects the model's sustained edge in complex tasks like software engineering and design-centric coding—verified in recent Design Arena evaluations—bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts, including voice mode, persistent memory, and seamless ChatGPT data imports that spiked app adoption. This positioning outpaces rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1, with static rankings over three months signaling inertia. Challenges could arise from surprise April releases, such as rumored GPT-5.5 or Grok 4.20 upgrades, if they surpass Opus 4.6 on arena scores before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 93%
Google 3.3%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$2,913,698 Vol.
$2,913,698 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

3%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 3.3%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$2,913,698 Vol.
$2,913,698 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

3%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a 92.5% implied probability on Polymarket for the top AI model by April's end, driven by its unchallenged dominance atop LMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboards across text, coding, and reasoning benchmarks since early March 2026. Traders' strong consensus reflects the model's sustained edge in complex tasks like software engineering and design-centric coding—verified in recent Design Arena evaluations—bolstered by Anthropic's rapid feature rollouts, including voice mode, persistent memory, and seamless ChatGPT data imports that spiked app adoption. This positioning outpaces rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1, with static rankings over three months signaling inertia. Challenges could arise from surprise April releases, such as rumored GPT-5.5 or Grok 4.20 upgrades, if they surpass Opus 4.6 on arena scores before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes