Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by its current Claude Opus 4.6 model's benchmark dominance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, coupled with a March 26 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased large language model described by Anthropic as its most capable and dangerous yet, already in early testing. Rapid March updates, including computer use capabilities and persistent memory, have solidified Anthropic's shipping edge over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.3 series (3.8%) and Google's Gemini 3 (6%), though a surprise GPT-5 successor or Gemini release could challenge before resolution. Watch for Mythos deployment timelines amid AI safety concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 86%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.8%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,385,112 Vol.
$2,385,112 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.8%
DeepSeek 1.6%
$2,385,112 Vol.
$2,385,112 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$47,153 Vol.
86%
$39,208 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$486,670 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,456,833 Vol.
2%
xAI
$71,080 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$27,876 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$26,687 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$62,577 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$32,894 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,864 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$29,240 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$41,957 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by its current Claude Opus 4.6 model's benchmark dominance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, coupled with a March 26 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased large language model described by Anthropic as its most capable and dangerous yet, already in early testing. Rapid March updates, including computer use capabilities and persistent memory, have solidified Anthropic's shipping edge over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.3 series (3.8%) and Google's Gemini 3 (6%), though a surprise GPT-5 successor or Gemini release could challenge before resolution. Watch for Mythos deployment timelines amid AI safety concerns.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$2,385,112Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by its current Claude Opus 4.6 model's benchmark dominance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, coupled with a March 26 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased large language model described by Anthropic as its most capable and dangerous yet, already in early testing. Rapid March updates, including computer use capabilities and persistent memory, have solidified Anthropic's shipping edge over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.3 series (3.8%) and Google's Gemini 3 (6%), though a surprise GPT-5 successor or Gemini release could challenge before resolution. Watch for Mythos deployment timelines amid AI safety concerns.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,385,112Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, 2026, driven by its current Claude Opus 4.6 model's benchmark dominance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks, coupled with a March 26 data leak revealing "Claude Mythos"—an unreleased large language model described by Anthropic as its most capable and dangerous yet, already in early testing. Rapid March updates, including computer use capabilities and persistent memory, have solidified Anthropic's shipping edge over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.3 series (3.8%) and Google's Gemini 3 (6%), though a surprise GPT-5 successor or Gemini release could challenge before resolution. Watch for Mythos deployment timelines amid AI safety concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes