Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$43,629 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
49%
Ras Tanura
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
24%
Safaniya Field
20%
Khurais Field
20%
East–West Pipeline
20%
Leviathan Field
17%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
16%
Al Zour Refinery
25%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
8%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$43,629 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,240 Vol.
49%
Ras Tanura
$4,317 Vol.
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,151 Vol.
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,207 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$0 Vol.
24%
Safaniya Field
$0 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,302 Vol.
20%
East–West Pipeline
$4,902 Vol.
20%
Leviathan Field
$0 Vol.
17%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$310 Vol.
16%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
25%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$7,337 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$43,629Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$43,629Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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