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Géopolitique·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$41,762 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$41,762 Vol.

Polymarket

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$11,240 Vol.

49%

Ras Tanura

$4,317 Vol.

40%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$3,150 Vol.

26%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$6,205 Vol.

26%

Ruwais Refinery

$0 Vol.

26%

Ghawar Field

$0 Vol.

24%

Khurais Field

$4,302 Vol.

21%

Safaniya Field

$0 Vol.

20%

East–West Pipeline

$4,902 Vol.

20%

Leviathan Field

$0 Vol.

18%

Al Zour Refinery

$0 Vol.

25%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$310 Vol.

16%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$7,337 Vol.

8%

Burj Khalifa

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$41,762
Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 14 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Ras Laffan Industrial City » à 49%, suivi de « Ras Tanura » à 40%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 49¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 49% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30? » a généré $41.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30? », parcourez les 14 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30? » est « Ras Laffan Industrial City » à 49%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 49% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Ras Tanura » à 40%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.