The recent voter approval of Virginia’s new congressional map has reshaped the district’s partisan balance, producing a D+2 Partisan Voting Index and positioning the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Eugene Vindman, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4 but benefits from the map’s emphasis on Northern Virginia suburbs that reliably support Democratic candidates. Republican contenders, including Tara Durant and Douglas Ollivant, are competing in their own primary under far less favorable lines. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, with limited pathways for an upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVA-07 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
VA-07 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
88%
Parti républicain
9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$219 Vol.
88%
Parti républicain
$538 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The recent voter approval of Virginia’s new congressional map has reshaped the district’s partisan balance, producing a D+2 Partisan Voting Index and positioning the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Eugene Vindman, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4 but benefits from the map’s emphasis on Northern Virginia suburbs that reliably support Democratic candidates. Republican contenders, including Tara Durant and Douglas Ollivant, are competing in their own primary under far less favorable lines. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, with limited pathways for an upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$758Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The recent voter approval of Virginia’s new congressional map has reshaped the district’s partisan balance, producing a D+2 Partisan Voting Index and positioning the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Eugene Vindman, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4 but benefits from the map’s emphasis on Northern Virginia suburbs that reliably support Democratic candidates. Republican contenders, including Tara Durant and Douglas Ollivant, are competing in their own primary under far less favorable lines. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, with limited pathways for an upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$758Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent voter approval of Virginia’s new congressional map has reshaped the district’s partisan balance, producing a D+2 Partisan Voting Index and positioning the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Eugene Vindman, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded Democratic primary on August 4 but benefits from the map’s emphasis on Northern Virginia suburbs that reliably support Democratic candidates. Republican contenders, including Tara Durant and Douglas Ollivant, are competing in their own primary under far less favorable lines. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, with limited pathways for an upset absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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