Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites and leadership, trader consensus anticipates potential US ground entry amid massive regional deployments exceeding 50,000 troops. Recent arrivals of 3,500 Marines, 82nd Airborne, and other elite units signal Pentagon preparations for limited operations, including raids on Kharg Island oil facilities, as reported last week. President Trump's April 2 address vowed "very hard" strikes over the next two-to-three weeks to dismantle Iran's capabilities, rejecting immediate invasion while Iran warns of retaliation against any incursion. No confirmed US personnel entry has occurred, with diplomatic talks on a 15-point US proposal stalled and an April 6 deadline looming as a possible escalation pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ?
Les forces américaines entrent en Iran par... ?
$102,236,621 Vol.
3 mars 2026
31 mars
<1%
30 avril
67%
31 décembre
77%
$102,236,621 Vol.
31 mars
$71,667,681 Vol.
<1%
30 avril
$19,733,016 Vol.
67%
31 décembre
$8,770,161 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites and leadership, trader consensus anticipates potential US ground entry amid massive regional deployments exceeding 50,000 troops. Recent arrivals of 3,500 Marines, 82nd Airborne, and other elite units signal Pentagon preparations for limited operations, including raids on Kharg Island oil facilities, as reported last week. President Trump's April 2 address vowed "very hard" strikes over the next two-to-three weeks to dismantle Iran's capabilities, rejecting immediate invasion while Iran warns of retaliation against any incursion. No confirmed US personnel entry has occurred, with diplomatic talks on a 15-point US proposal stalled and an April 6 deadline looming as a possible escalation pivot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$102,236,621Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites and leadership, trader consensus anticipates potential US ground entry amid massive regional deployments exceeding 50,000 troops. Recent arrivals of 3,500 Marines, 82nd Airborne, and other elite units signal Pentagon preparations for limited operations, including raids on Kharg Island oil facilities, as reported last week. President Trump's April 2 address vowed "very hard" strikes over the next two-to-three weeks to dismantle Iran's capabilities, rejecting immediate invasion while Iran warns of retaliation against any incursion. No confirmed US personnel entry has occurred, with diplomatic talks on a 15-point US proposal stalled and an April 6 deadline looming as a possible escalation pivot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,236,621Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites and leadership, trader consensus anticipates potential US ground entry amid massive regional deployments exceeding 50,000 troops. Recent arrivals of 3,500 Marines, 82nd Airborne, and other elite units signal Pentagon preparations for limited operations, including raids on Kharg Island oil facilities, as reported last week. President Trump's April 2 address vowed "very hard" strikes over the next two-to-three weeks to dismantle Iran's capabilities, rejecting immediate invasion while Iran warns of retaliation against any incursion. No confirmed US personnel entry has occurred, with diplomatic talks on a 15-point US proposal stalled and an April 6 deadline looming as a possible escalation pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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