Traders' 92% implied probability on "No" for a U.S. Congress member exiting over Epstein files by April 30 stems from the absence of any verified links tying sitting lawmakers to the unsealed court documents from the Giuffre-Maxwell case. The January 2024 release named historical figures like former Senator George Mitchell but yielded no criminal charges, resignations, or expulsion proceedings against current members despite initial speculation. No fresh document drops, DOJ investigations, or bipartisan pressures have emerged in the past 30 days, leaving minimal time before the deadline for such an outcome amid ongoing House ethics probes unrelated to Epstein. This reflects crowd wisdom pricing structural barriers to rapid ousters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 92% implied probability on "No" for a U.S. Congress member exiting over Epstein files by April 30 stems from the absence of any verified links tying sitting lawmakers to the unsealed court documents from the Giuffre-Maxwell case. The January 2024 release named historical figures like former Senator George Mitchell but yielded no criminal charges, resignations, or expulsion proceedings against current members despite initial speculation. No fresh document drops, DOJ investigations, or bipartisan pressures have emerged in the past 30 days, leaving minimal time before the deadline for such an outcome amid ongoing House ethics probes unrelated to Epstein. This reflects crowd wisdom pricing structural barriers to rapid ousters.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$6,145Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 92% implied probability on "No" for a U.S. Congress member exiting over Epstein files by April 30 stems from the absence of any verified links tying sitting lawmakers to the unsealed court documents from the Giuffre-Maxwell case. The January 2024 release named historical figures like former Senator George Mitchell but yielded no criminal charges, resignations, or expulsion proceedings against current members despite initial speculation. No fresh document drops, DOJ investigations, or bipartisan pressures have emerged in the past 30 days, leaving minimal time before the deadline for such an outcome amid ongoing House ethics probes unrelated to Epstein. This reflects crowd wisdom pricing structural barriers to rapid ousters.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.
Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,145Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 92% implied probability on "No" for a U.S. Congress member exiting over Epstein files by April 30 stems from the absence of any verified links tying sitting lawmakers to the unsealed court documents from the Giuffre-Maxwell case. The January 2024 release named historical figures like former Senator George Mitchell but yielded no criminal charges, resignations, or expulsion proceedings against current members despite initial speculation. No fresh document drops, DOJ investigations, or bipartisan pressures have emerged in the past 30 days, leaving minimal time before the deadline for such an outcome amid ongoing House ethics probes unrelated to Epstein. This reflects crowd wisdom pricing structural barriers to rapid ousters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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