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Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?

Market icon

Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$135,504 Vol.

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$135,504 Vol.

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).

An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked.

Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$135,504
Date de fin
Feb 5, 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:19 AM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD). An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked. Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).

An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked.

Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$135,504
Date de fin
Feb 5, 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:19 AM ET
The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD). An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked. Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Les femmes transgenres seront-elles interdites aux Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" has generated $135.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" is "Les femmes transgenres seront-elles interdites aux Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Les femmes transgenres sont-elles bannies des Jeux olympiques avant les Jeux d'hiver ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.