In the wake of the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary, where no candidate secured a majority, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to the May 26 runoff, driving trader consensus toward Paxton at 65.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including an Impact Research survey from mid-March showing Paxton ahead 53%-37%, and a March 29 CPAC straw poll where he dominated 67%-21% in Cornyn's absence, underscore Paxton's momentum among the GOP base despite Cornyn's 20-to-33-to-1 primary spending edge. President Trump's pending endorsement remains a pivotal uncertainty, while negligible odds for Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt reflect their first-round eliminations. The race highlights populist vs. establishment tensions in this battleground primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas
Vainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas
Ken Paxton 66%
John Cornyn 34%
Dawn Buckingham <1%
Beth Van Duyne <1%
$15,082,647 Vol.
$15,082,647 Vol.
Ken Paxton
66%
John Cornyn
34%
Dawn Buckingham
<1%
Beth Van Duyne
<1%
Wesley Hunt
<1%
Ken Paxton 66%
John Cornyn 34%
Dawn Buckingham <1%
Beth Van Duyne <1%
$15,082,647 Vol.
$15,082,647 Vol.
Ken Paxton
66%
John Cornyn
34%
Dawn Buckingham
<1%
Beth Van Duyne
<1%
Wesley Hunt
<1%
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the wake of the March 3, 2026, Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary, where no candidate secured a majority, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to the May 26 runoff, driving trader consensus toward Paxton at 65.5% implied probability. Recent polls, including an Impact Research survey from mid-March showing Paxton ahead 53%-37%, and a March 29 CPAC straw poll where he dominated 67%-21% in Cornyn's absence, underscore Paxton's momentum among the GOP base despite Cornyn's 20-to-33-to-1 primary spending edge. President Trump's pending endorsement remains a pivotal uncertainty, while negligible odds for Dawn Buckingham, Beth Van Duyne, and Wesley Hunt reflect their first-round eliminations. The race highlights populist vs. establishment tensions in this battleground primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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