Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the AI leader's complex capped-profit structure blending nonprofit oversight with for-profit operations, which poses significant hurdles for public markets. A massive $6.6 billion funding round in October 2024, led by Thrive Capital, boosted post-money valuation to $157 billion, eliminating near-term liquidity needs. CEO Sam Altman's recent interviews emphasize long-term artificial intelligence goals like AGI over rushed listings, amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and EU on AI safety and competition. Valuation bins like 1T–1.25T at 9.6% reflect speculative optimism tied to GPT model dominance, but lack concrete S-1 filings keeps uncertainty high; monitor Q1 2025 for structural announcements or tender offers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 62%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 9.6%
750B–1T 8.5%
<500B 5.3%
$1,525,002 Vol.
$1,525,002 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
5%
500–750 milliards de dollars
3%
750B–1T
8%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
10%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1.5T+
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
62%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 62%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 9.6%
750B–1T 8.5%
<500B 5.3%
$1,525,002 Vol.
$1,525,002 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$255,108 Vol.
5%
500–750 milliards de dollars
$136,679 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$127,862 Vol.
8%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
$169,076 Vol.
10%
1,25T–1,5T
$480,046 Vol.
4%
1.5T+
$87,579 Vol.
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
$268,651 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the AI leader's complex capped-profit structure blending nonprofit oversight with for-profit operations, which poses significant hurdles for public markets. A massive $6.6 billion funding round in October 2024, led by Thrive Capital, boosted post-money valuation to $157 billion, eliminating near-term liquidity needs. CEO Sam Altman's recent interviews emphasize long-term artificial intelligence goals like AGI over rushed listings, amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and EU on AI safety and competition. Valuation bins like 1T–1.25T at 9.6% reflect speculative optimism tied to GPT model dominance, but lack concrete S-1 filings keeps uncertainty high; monitor Q1 2025 for structural announcements or tender offers.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,525,002Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the AI leader's complex capped-profit structure blending nonprofit oversight with for-profit operations, which poses significant hurdles for public markets. A massive $6.6 billion funding round in October 2024, led by Thrive Capital, boosted post-money valuation to $157 billion, eliminating near-term liquidity needs. CEO Sam Altman's recent interviews emphasize long-term artificial intelligence goals like AGI over rushed listings, amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and EU on AI safety and competition. Valuation bins like 1T–1.25T at 9.6% reflect speculative optimism tied to GPT model dominance, but lack concrete S-1 filings keeps uncertainty high; monitor Q1 2025 for structural announcements or tender offers.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,525,002Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, driven by the AI leader's complex capped-profit structure blending nonprofit oversight with for-profit operations, which poses significant hurdles for public markets. A massive $6.6 billion funding round in October 2024, led by Thrive Capital, boosted post-money valuation to $157 billion, eliminating near-term liquidity needs. CEO Sam Altman's recent interviews emphasize long-term artificial intelligence goals like AGI over rushed listings, amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and EU on AI safety and competition. Valuation bins like 1T–1.25T at 9.6% reflect speculative optimism tied to GPT model dominance, but lack concrete S-1 filings keeps uncertainty high; monitor Q1 2025 for structural announcements or tender offers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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