OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with $3 billion from retail investors—supplying massive liquidity amid $19 billion annual cash burn and profitability projected no earlier than 2030. Despite informal Wall Street bank talks, hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, and strategy shifts toward enterprise AI products like Codex, no S-1 filing has materialized, fueling delay skepticism in a competitive landscape with Anthropic eyeing similar moves. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect private hype but public market caution; watch Q4 for filing catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 65%
1.5T+ 9.0%
1,25T–1,5T 9.0%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 5.1%
$1,554,093 Vol.
$1,554,093 Vol.
<500B
3%
500–750 milliards de dollars
3%
750B–1T
4%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
5%
1,25T–1,5T
9%
1.5T+
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
65%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 65%
1.5T+ 9.0%
1,25T–1,5T 9.0%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 5.1%
$1,554,093 Vol.
$1,554,093 Vol.
<500B
3%
500–750 milliards de dollars
3%
750B–1T
4%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
5%
1,25T–1,5T
9%
1.5T+
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
65%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by the AI lab's record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with $3 billion from retail investors—supplying massive liquidity amid $19 billion annual cash burn and profitability projected no earlier than 2030. Despite informal Wall Street bank talks, hiring a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations, and strategy shifts toward enterprise AI products like Codex, no S-1 filing has materialized, fueling delay skepticism in a competitive landscape with Anthropic eyeing similar moves. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect private hype but public market caution; watch Q4 for filing catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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